🔗 Share this article

After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

While it is not his strongest opening to a season - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the opening stages for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

The reality that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the honor so soon in the campaign.

Firstly, the quantity of strikes he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the modest opening his typical competitors for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more good opportunities to find the net than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is shown by analyzing the total and standard of chances that players have had in the English first division so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, a dozen more than any other player.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this season. His attempts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to score on average - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

In short, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Historical Comparison

Starting a season so strongly is, as mentioned above, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last term he had netted ten times - a quartet more than anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the City forward.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this stage last season.

Actually this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether due to injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?

That contest is far more competitive at this initial phase because two elite attackers have similarly opened in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the highest xG of the trio without having taken any from the penalty spot makes him the frontrunner.

But since Kane and Mbappe are two of the best converters in European soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the race is certainly on.